Multiple Measurement of Social Capital in Hungary - an Assessment of National and Case Study Findings
The catchall feature of the social capital concept, the wide range of its interpretation implies a variety of possible consequences. In addition to a new upsurge of related fields such as social network studies it may entail a boost of theoretical efforts putting a number of sociological core concepts into new light but yielding a paradigmatic focus with an interdisciplinary character as well (from economics to the newly emerging 'ecometrics'). The vagueness of the concept, the blurred outlines of its operationalization hides, however, serious dangers, capable to lead to an early frustration. It is not easy to assess the trade-off between the heuristic benefits of a multilayered approach and the concomitant methodological handicaps. While it is mostly advisable to go on with conceptual clarifications and sharpening the tools of related methodology, it seems premature to narrow the concept in a radical way or get committed with any of the possible indicators or techniques. This does not mean an unbounded approach even on the short term. It seems a necessary limitation for example to distinguish between a wider spectrum of resources involved in social networks and the more specifically capital-like elements (earmarked by investment and accumulation e.g.). In the same vein, it seems important to handle relationship-assets at the core of social capital separately from output-like moments such as norms or attitudes frequently put on a par with the former. The latter should, however, have their place among significant criterion variables in the frame of validity tests, construct-related measurement experimentations alongside with tests of internal consistency in a traditional sense. The iterative coupling of theoretical and empirical efforts can be facilitated by an alteration of study settings adding specific scenes (in the frame of case studies) to more general contexts (as surveys on national samples).
This objective has been followed when supplementing the pool of our social network surveys of the Hungarian population from 1997 and 1998 (N appr.1000 and 800) by a four-village survey in 2000 (N=728 as a whole) based on a 2 by 2 analytical design with a regional East/West (less/more developed) dimension on the one hand and a more concept-related distinction on the other (high and low civic participation measured by recurrent patterns of voter turnout, an aspect interpreted by some authors even as a manifestation of social capital). The more or less saturated village samples (with a coverage of 75 to 80 per cent of adult populations as an average) not only permit a contrast of in-degree measures with more generally used out-degree ones but also a pronounced substantive stress on community integration.
While the small size of these settlements may suggest a local
closure in social relationships, they are far not homogeneous
with this regard. The one among them in the most advantegous geographic
and social position is characterized by a relatively wide range
of outward contacts reaching beyond the local (in some respects
even national) contexts. Its leading position on most aspects
of network resources exemplifies experiences concerning the consolidation
of various types of social capital. The application of various
techniques such as an adapted version of the Lin-Dumin position
generator (Lin 1999 as a recent development), alongside with a
Fischer-GSS type of name generator, added by a roster of association
memberships plus some specifically designed measures (such as
mail networking and kinship patron roles and also some reputation
measures related to the local scene) has permitted to survey an
array of resources having to do with either the strong or the
weak tie pole (or taking the perhaps even more telling triad of
'bonding', 'bridging' and 'linking' ties as by Woolcock 2000).
Our case finding have corroborated our earlier national findings
(Angelusz-Tardos 2001) pointing to the strategic role of weak-tie
type of resources in the formation of social capital indicated
not the least by the central place of position generator measures
in the composition of global indexes. Most criterion-related analyses
(to mention participation variables in the first place, more so
with national than municipal elections) have exhibited a similar
pattern. Specific cases have presented some important differences
from this overall picture at the same time. The 'deviant' case
(the village with high participation in the less developed and,
as a rule, low-turnout region) has exhibited a relatively high
overall score of network resources especially by its more numerous
contacts of the strong-tie type. Also, as far as participation
is concerned, embeddedness in these mostly kinship-related ties
proves to be here the strongest predictor. (While at the opposite
deviant case of low turnout in the West region it is the kinship
patron role that presents the most significant relationship with
participation, this time of a negative sign.) All this suggests
the - theoretically well interpretable - protective role of 'bonding'
ties at regions or periods of hardships and emphasises the need
of taking the
specificity of various settings into account.
The data being still fresh, our case study analyses are far from finished, with renewed efforts ahead to cope with aggregation dilemmas of index construction (as detailed by Snijders 1999). A next phase of our analyses sets out to move from the individual to the collective level including family and neighberhood entities on the one hand and community-level structural characteristics of social integration on the other. A similarly important task will be, with some initial results to be presented in the Conference paper, to outline more concrete mechanisms of the functioning of social capital (such as diffusion of norms and patterns of opinion leadership on the local scene).
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Harry
Van Buren - Roberts Wesleyan College The strength of philos ties: A model of within-groups social capital |
Abstract: Social capital, especially at the organizational
level, has the promise to become an important theoretical frame
for academic research and organizational practice. But for organizational-level
social capital to fulfill this promise, much more progress needs
to be made in operationalizing the construct. In the paper, I
will offer a framework that first (1) develops empirical indicators
of social capital among members of a small group and then (2)
connects what is called within-groups social capital with organizational-level
social capital. Krackhardt's (1992) discussion of philos relationships--in
which social actors A and B have interaction, affection, and a
relationship that has lasted over time--will be used to frame
the argument that network
closure is most important as a foundation for both within-groups
social capital and organizational social capital, although this
claim must be made cautiously in light of likely contingency factors
that affect the social capital-related value of both network closure
and brokerage opportunities.
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Gianluca
Carnabuci - University of Twente, Faculty of Technology
and Management, Department of Marketing, Strategy and Entrepreneurship The Network Structure of Social Capital |
Although there is wide consensus among social scientists on
the meaning of social capital, there exist a number of alternative
theoretical arguments on how social capital is generated. Three
theoretical lines of explanation stand out in the current debate.
The closure argument posits that actors' social capital is associated
with the density of the networks in which actors are embedded,
and ascribes the generation of social capital to the emergence
of obligations, to faster rates of circulation of information,
and to the effectiveness of social control. The brokerage argument
posits that actors' social capital is associated with the amount
of structural holes actors span, and ascribes the generation of
social capital to information variety and bargaining power. The
status argument posits that actors' social capital is associated
with their position in the status hierarchy, and ascribes the
generation of social capital to the signaling effect of status
position.
This working paper sketches a theory of social capital that brings
all three lines of explanation together in a unitary explanatory
model, in which social clusters are conceived as the intersection
of role and status equivalence, and the relationship between relational
and positional embeddedness becomes crucial.
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Bonnie
H. Erickson, Sociology, University of Toronto The Gender of Social Capital |
We have made great advances by investigating social capital in the sense of the occupational variety in a person's network. But the variety of contacts with men should have different outcomes than the variety of contacts with women, given the persistence of gender differences in our societies. This paper will develop theoretical predictions for differences in occupational, cultural, political, and health outcomes, and will present a research instrument developed to test these ideas.
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Martin
van der Gaag - Tom Snijders - ICS / Department
of Statistics and Measurement Theory, University of Groningen Dimensions in individuals' social capital |
Although over the years several valuable measures of individual
social capital have been applied, these measures and the corresponding
questionnaire items have not been subjected to extensive analyses
of their scaling properties. Such analyses can be useful, however,
because there may be additional information hidden in the population-specific
association patterns of the items and because well-constructed
scales can be helpful in obtaining generalizable research results.
These association patterns form an interesting feature of social
capital in view of the potential mobilisation of social capital:
given limited time and human resources available to individuals,
low correlations between social resource items would imply a greater
difficulty for individuals in accessing their social capital in
general. Hence, low correlation patterns can overall be expected
to be a signal of greater difficulty in individual goal achievement
using social capital. In this paper we explore and discuss association
patterns between social capital items for the Dutch population.
In a nationally representative sample (N=935) of the 1999-
2000 Social Survey on the Networks of the Dutch, non-parametric
scale analyses were performed on data retrieved with items constructed
along the idea of the 'position generator' (Lin and Dumin, 1986).
Results suggest the presence of a bipolar dimension largely coinciding
with social network members' occupational prestige. In addition
there is also some evidence that there may be independent cumulative
dimensions of intellectual, financial, and practical social resources.
These results may
lead to scales for individuals’ social capital with better
generalizability properties and, in addition, they may form a
confirmation of Bourdieu's supposition of separate cultural and
financial social resources.
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Alejandro
Garcia-Macias - Departamento de sociología y Antropología
Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes Social networks and enterprise clustering |
The paper explores the nature of social networks of small and medium size enterprise owners, in the context of an industrial cluster. In the discussion about industrial districts, it is supposed that trust is an essential component of dynamic production networks: Research made recently in a Mexican apparel industry cluster, where more than 300 small and medium size producers can be found, shows that the industrial (organizational) network and the social owner´s (personal) network are very different.
In other words, evidence suggest that owners tend to establish production or commercial relationships with people which is not very close in their social networks, and to minimize the apparently effective social capital available in other producers, specifically friends and relatives.
In the article, Social Network Analysis is used to prove how the industrial agglomeration, without solid trust-based social networks, is not a warranty of entrepreneurial success by itself; even though trust is a necessary condition for the cluster generation.
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Martin
Gargiulo(1) - Andrej Rus(2) - (1) INSEAD- (2) University
of Ljubljana Social Capital and Market Adaptation in Slovenia |
This paper analyses how the social capital of the CEOs of Slovenian
firms affected their ability to reorient sales after the crisis
brought about by the separation from former Yugoslavia in 1991.
This crisis caused a drop in sales estimated between 25% and 33%,
which was a major shock for an economy where more than 60% of
the GDP was linked to trade. Yet, there was wide variation in
the firm's ability to respond to this crisis. Using a representative
sample of Slovenian firms, and controlling for both exposure to
the Yugoslavian market and existing links to the Western markets
in 1990, we show that firms whose CEOs could count on a cohesive
top management team did better at recovering from the Yugoslavian
shock, often maintaining or even increasing their total sales
between 1990 and 1993. However, excessive closeness between the
CEO and his top management team had a negative influence on sales
performance. Our results suggest that while effective leadership
may require a cohesive core of followers to mobilize the organization,
it also requires that the leader can keep enough distance from
that core to perform an effective brokerage role between the firm
and the environment.
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Andromachi
Hadjiyanni - National Centre for Social Research Social Capital and employment opportunities |
The importance of social capital in finding job placements has already been stressed by a number of studies. The particular way and the extent of the utilisation of social capital, seem to be differentiated according to different social formation, influenced by factors such us concepts, opinions, social practices, tradition etc.
A recent survey conducted by our research team in Greece, was aiming to investigate the procedures of the integration of graduates to labour market and the role of the social capital and social networks in finding job placements. Information collected for 620 Social Sciences graduates; 500 in Athens and 120 in other urban areas. The findings of this survey provided empirical evidence on the importance of social relations-networks in accessing to labour market, something that was already a "common sense" in Greece and has reported in a number of studies. The most surprising findings was first, the emphasis on general social networks, than family networks, for finding the first job and second, the use of non-formal ways of finding job placements (family and social networks) even several years after their integration to the labour market and often after having change several jobs.
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Renee van der Hulst - ICS, University
of Groningen, The Netherlands Gender Differences in Workplace Authority? An Empirical Study on the Social Capital of Networks |
Social resources embedded in personal relationships (i.e.,
information, practical assistance and socio-emotional support),
can be used in accomplishing workplace authority. In this study
gender differences in supervisory, sanctioning, and decision-making
responsibilities are explored, and related to differences in the
social structure and/or relational content of personal relationships
at work. People's shortage of resources, as a function of their
social network, could keep them from jobs at higher responsibility
levels (i.e., the 'capital deficit hypothesis'). On the other
hand, men and women with equal qualifications and equal amounts
of social resources, may not experience equal return benefits
from their networks (i.e., the 'return deficit hypothesis').
Therefore, next to the main focus of social networks as explanatory
mechanism for workplace authority, various micro- and macro-dynamic
influences are examined not only directly, but also indirectly
through their impact on (access and benefits) of social networks.
Benefits and constraints of male and female workers' social activities
are incorporated to the theoretical model of Social Production
Functions (SPF) theory (Lindenberg, 1996). Data is collected with
450 employees of a Dutch firm. Since the study is currently in
progress empirical results are as yet unavailable. The theoretical
framework of the study is discussed.
Actors involved in political networks commonly use the term
political capital in everyday discourse. More than in probably
any other social context, politics involves a conscious awareness
of network connections and how they can be used and manipulated
to achieve political ends. Political actors frequently speak of
'using up capital', 'spending capital in foolish ways', and the
outright exchange of capital. Such capital is manifested in the
network of social and political relations and it is understood
that success in politics is difficult to achieve without thorough
knowledge of the political landscape. This paper follows a political
network in North Carolina over a 6-year period, examining individual
variation in reputed political influence as it relates to various
kinds of network centrality, structural holes, cognitive knowledge
of the network, and political outcomes at three points in time.
Included are legislators, lobbyists, state government officials,
and activists.
The study finds that knowledge of the network is particularly
advantageous during times of political instability and that influence
in the political network is clearly related at all points in time
to an actor's ability to broker (betweenness centrality) among
the various political players.
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Larissa
Lomnitz - National University of Mexico Globalization, Informal Economy and Social Networks |
This paper will relate different manifestations of the informal economy (non-regulated, illegal and criminal activities) , with formal institutions of society ( State and regulated markets) and the interpersonal informal networks through which informal exchanges are realized. International global agencies have produced for the first time reliable information on levels of poverty in the world today, and on the dramatic increase of the informal economy in different socio-political systems (advanced capitalist, developing capitalist, communist and post-communist). Informal economic activities have been defined as those which escape State regulation both on production and distribution of goods and services and on the nature of their final goal (illegal or criminal).Informal exchanges are possible through networks based on cultural institutions of the societies where the exchanges take place, such as family, friendship and all other relations which allow the construction of social networks in which trust and loyalty among its members ensure the functional survival of informal groups. I will use ethnographic examples of studies made in the above listed types of societies showing the relationship between regulations which define formality and informal exchange networks geared towards satisfying social needs which the formal system is unable or unwilling to do. Therefore, a parallel economic sphere results from regulation and control.
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Marc Magee
- Nan Lin - Duke University Participation in Voluntary Associations as Social Capital: A Reconceptualization |
One of the fastest growing and yet controversial areas of social
capital research is
the linkage between participation in voluntary organizations and
social capital. In this
research enterprise, social capital is assessed through data collected
on memberships and participation rates in voluntary organizations.
Despite the promise of this approach, the field has suffered from
equivocal findings. Beyond the descriptive trend analysis, there
is little systematic evidence as to the extent that participation
in voluntary organizations is indeed associated with other indicators
of social capital or exerts expected returns. We argue that the
basic assumption held previously about the necessary condition
of dense or closed networks can be flawed. Instead, we must consider
the proposition that sparse and open networks may be richer in
embedded resources. Conceptual development and empirical evidence
have lent support to the linkage between sparse and open networks
and embedded resources and instrumental returns, for example,
in socioeconomic statuses. Following this line of analysis, one
would expect that participation in organizations more heterogeneous
in member characteristics would be more beneficial to both participants
and the organizations than in organizations more homogeneous in
such characteristics. We therefore hypothesize that participation
in cosmopolitan organizations rather than local organizations
are more beneficial to the participants and the organizations.
Data from a survey study in Taiwan and from secondary analyses
of the GSS survey data seem to support this hypothesis. We will
extend this proposal to consider expressive as well as instrumental
outcomes and for collective as well as individual entities.
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Hester
Moerbeek(1) - Henk Flap(2) - (1) Wageningen University
- (2) Utrecht University Social Resources, Modernization and Occupational Attainment |
Differential access to social resources has been suggested as an explanation why with ongoing modernization social origin still affects a person's educational and occupational chances and why a person's education does not have a larger and growing effect on his or her occupational attainment.
We analyse data from the Dutch Telepanel Survey from 1992/'93 among 1900 households in the Netherlands. To measure social capital we use the position generator (Lin & Dumin 1986) and other positional measures.
Our research establishes, first, that family ties provide better access to social resources than friends but less so than acquaintances. Secondly, family of origin, i.e., father's prestige, does affect access to social resources to a larger degree than a person's own education. Thirdly, analysing the role of access to social resources in the attainment process learns, while looking at the prestige of one's parents best friends when one was young and the prestige of one's current best friends, that there is a shift from achieved to ascribed social capital. Fourth, those who have ever unsuccessfully applied seem to be more successful in the rest of their lives, yet, and finally, using social resources is not a route for people with no other resources, since there a no clear differences between those who ever unsuccessfully applied for a job through formal means and those who ever unsuccessfully applied through informal means.
Key words: social resources; ascribed social capital; achieved social capital; modernization; position generator; occupational attainment
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Josep A. Rodriguez - Fredesvinda
Merida - Department of Sociology - Universitat de Barcelona Social Capital in Spain: The Emergence of a New Form of Stratification and Action |
Using several national surveys (CIRES, CIS, World Value Survey)
we undertake an assesment of social capital in Spain looking at
both individual and collective forms of it. Our first objective
is to analyze the distribution of social capital among social
groups as well as between regions. We will then study its impact
on several indicators of well-being and collective action. We
will conclude looking into the relation between social participation
in civil organizations and trust in social institutions and
the state.
New skilled immigrants have a hard time getting jobs. Some urge professional and technical immigrants to give up efforts to break into the local work force and start a business. How they can do so is a big question. Looking at educated PRC immigrants to Canada, we develop a model to explain the conditions under which these men and women, so talented and in demand in China, might be able to avoid under employment by setting up their own businesses. We find that their education brings the newcomer to the shores. But their human capital, was dynamically interrelated with organizational needs of large complex bureaucracies. Once in Canada, their human capital is not appreciated. Further, their social capital is impoverished. Few can start up flourishing enterprises abroad. Without social capital, skilled immigrants are not prime candidates for entrepreneurship.
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Endre Sik - TARKI, Social Research
Centre Network Dependent Path Dependence |
In sociology path dependence is "the consequence of small events and chance circumstances (which) determine solutions that, once prevail, lead to a particular path". (North 1990 p. 94). In the literature of transitology the emphasis is on the legacy of communism. My addition to this approach is the following: I assume that communism in general and the mature phase of it in particular was (partly due to structural reasons, partly due to historical coincidence) a network dense society (Sik 1994). Partly since post-communism unavoidably used the brickolage of communist institutions (Stark 1995), partly since networks by definitions are high-inertia institutions the post communist path was cobbled with network-fragments (from the size of pebbles to huge marble pieces).
The network-dependent path of the transformation of the communist economy was further strengthened (the more intensive the traffic on this path is, the more likely the path widens into a highway due to the mutually re-inforcing interests of and consequently of the long-term investments of all actors on the road) by the temporary weakening of alternative institutions (such as the state, the internal market, etc.). But what was really important in strengthening the network dependent nature of the transformation process, there were certain transformation-specific processes, which by their immanent characteristics were network-dependent. Such processes were the privatisation, the restitution, the emergence of the multitude of new entrepreneurships, the appearance of multinational business, the opening of the border and last but not least the increasing risks of various economic actors in the course of "transformation crisis" (such as unemployment and decreasing real wages for the average households, the total collapse of the economic viability for certain ethnic groups and regions, the increasing rate of criminality, etc.).
The ultimate question is whether a network dependent country can or cannot leave its path? Can deeply socialised networking pratices of the everyday life be abandoned? Could economic actors with vested interests in maintaing utilitaristic (corruptive, barter, etc.) networks be encouraged to disclaim these assets? Can institutions embedded into a network-intensive culture disembed themselves (or being forced or encouraged) from it? My tentative answer is no,no,no, and no, respectively. The explanation follows the convincing arguments of Gerschenkron (1962) on institution specific nature of economic backwardness. I assume that just as the state substituted the colonial wealth and the banking system in the process of "original accumulation of capital" in backward economies, the network capital plays the same role in post-communist tranformation. This is the only resource these economies have in plenty consequently they cannot afford to use it. And since it is very unlikely that they ever reach the stage of economic development they could afford to rely less on network capital, and even if it were to happen they could not undo their path dependent network capital and the institutional environment it creates for itself - the network dependent path survives.
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Javier Simonovich - Daniel Gat
- Technion-Israel Institute of Technology Social Networking of Entrepreneurs and Spatial Location of Firms as Success Factors of High-Tech Firms in Israel |
The research is a Ph.D. thesis at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Faculty of Arquitecture and Town Planning.
The thesis is a quantity, quality and ethnographic research of the influences of entrepreneur s social networking and spatial location of high-tech firms on the company first stage at the northern region of Israel.
Sixty one entrepreneurs were interviewed with a half-open questioner. The sample was created through the snowballing method. At the end of the interviews round the sample members were asked to check on a list the names of all those that they knew from their social, academic, military and professional past. Everybody returned the list.
There is a high level of correlation between the network variables such as Freeman s Degree Centrality and Bonacich Power, spatial location variables, background and social variables and the economic success of the high-tech firms. Economic success is defined by number of workers, the ability to rise funds and market value of the firms. Data was collected during the interviews.
One hypothesis suggests that there is a competitive advantage
on the especially cohesive social web and social networks of the
Israeli society, which enhance and promote the creation of high-tech
firms. These social networks are developed from a peculiar cultural
cooperation and trust tradition based on the same personal backgrounds
(especially at the army). Therefore the hypothesis that successful
entrepreneurs are the most socially networked ones is approved.
The other hypothesis suggests that there is a correlation between
the spatial location of the firm at the regional level and the
firm s success. This last hypothesis was also approved. Firms
from one strategically located town (Yokneam) are much more successful
by a high percentage than firms in all the other towns and cities
of the
northern region of Israel. Therefore Yokneam is called the Silicon
Waddi of northern Israel.
The research emphasize the importance of the entrepreneur s social network, and the spatial location of the firm as very influential factors on the founding process and success of high tech firms as promoters of economical growth and social development in Israel.
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Volker Taeube - SIDOS The Social Capital of Brokerageroles |
This study shifts interest on the relational characteristics
of persons that can be regarded as intermediants (brokers) between
different network sectors. Using the terms of „locals"
and „cosmopolitans" Merton (1968) pointed out the importance
of such roles for explaining structural outcomes. While discussing
the theoretical properties of different brokerageroles
Gould and Fernandez (1989) refered to the idea of persons as social
transmitters in a more non-formal way.
By trying to grasp these concepts in the framework of Hummell
and Sodeur's (1987; see also Burt, 1990) work on the census of
triadic role patterns, the measurement of different amounts of
social capital associated with brokers becomes possible.
In general, two classes of brokerroles can be distinguished: on
one side „locals" are playing a role within dense network
sectors such as cliques while on the other side „cosmopolitans"
reside in more sparsely connected network sectors which allow
the connection between otherwise seperated cliques. Whereas the
former are decisive for ingroup communication („ingroup leaders"),
the latter connect (as more „formal leaders") ingroup
leaders indirectly and allow thus for exchange of scarce resources
(i.e. information about job opportunities). Due to the greater
opportunities in accumulating social capital several cosmopolitanroles
with differing status seem possible. Depending on the offer of
scarce resources in a social network integration processes occur
that bring about changes in the status of the cosmopolitans.
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Beate Volker - Henk Flap
-Department of Sociology/ICS, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Informal Relations at Work |
After having described the informal networks at work four theories are tested. These are theories on emotional attraction between similar people, effects of restrictions, networks as social capital, and conflicts of interests between management and employees. We conducted a representative Survey of the Social Networks of the Dutch (SSND) among 1003 persons, while we over-sampling employed persons. In total 728 respondents do have a job. Colleagues are important in work related matters, but not for other things. People seldom turn to family, friends and neighbours in work related matters. Colleagues sometimes discuss their personal problems, though usually co-worker ties are weak.
Once more it is shown that people are attracted to similar others, also at work: being of the same age or sex promotes the emergence of mutual ties. As to restrictions: meeting chances stimulate contacts at work. Yet, those who have a part-time job demonstrate more social activities at the job. Time pressure because being married or having young children at home does lead to less contact with direct colleagues. As expected, functional interdependencies at the work and good relations among one's colleagues have a positive influence on one's own informal ties to colleagues. Conditions that make a person more attractive as a social resource, like having a higher education of a shared future, also enhance informal relations between co-workers. Women in spite that they seem to have a choice in life to be worker or a 'homemaker', do not have fewer or less good relations at work. Finally, in contrast to Marxist ideas good relations with the boss are associated with good relations to co-workers.
Some economists have hypothesised that social capital can benefit economic reform in post-communist countries by introducing greater trust in institutions and in the surrounding society, leading to more stable patterns of development. The paper will consider the relationship between participation in civil society, trust in institutions and in society and patterns of economic and political reform in Eastern and Central Europein comparative perspective drawing upon the World Values Survey and the New Democracies Barometer.
African Americans' low marriage rate has not been successfully explained by studies focusing on sex ratio. In the present study, however, a game theoretic model of sexual matching market is developed where the equilibria of the game is contingent on the trust level of the couples, which is measured by structural embeddedness. A relatively high proportion of polygyny as one of the sexual matching market equilibria in the African American population aggravates the sex ratio effect: men with low trust are nine times more likely to be unmarried and African American men are so significantly more likely to have low trust level that racial/ethnic difference becomes insignificant after controlling for the trust level. This explains why the marriage rate is lower than expected from the sole sex ratio explanations because unmarried single people in polygamous relationship are much less likely to marry: even if two populations have the same sex-ratio, a population with higher polygamous relationship is more likely to have a low marriage rate.
The effect of trust is empirically tested in an event history analysis using the Chicago Health and Social Life Survey, a representative sample of Chicago (n=890): relationship with high trust level is 7 times more likely to end up with marriage for men. In sum, African Americans are less likely to marry because they have a relatively high proportion of polygynous relationships as equilibrium in the sexual matching market due to the lack of trust as a social capital measured by structural embeddedness, which makes marriage implausible in many circumstances.
